By Chuck Bently
Chuck Bentley is the friend who tells you what you need to hear, not what you want to hear. In Seven Gray Swans: Trends That Threaten Our Financial Future Chuck helps us navigate these troubling trends (gray swans) so we are better able to live as the wise whom Solomon commends with these words:
A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.
Chuck is the CEO of Crown Financial Ministries, a global enterprise advancing God's principles of stewardship and life. He is also the founder and executive director of the Christian Economic Forum. Set against the backdrop of a world pandemic, Chuck shares seven trends he sees as "gray swans."
Black swans and gray swans
A black swan is "something we do not see coming and for which we cannot be prepared" (think the global pandemic) (6). A gray swan is a "potentially very significant event that is considered unlikely to happen but is still possible." To put another way, a gray swan is an obvious danger that we tend to ignore. There are two essential characteristics of a gray swan: (1) They are avoidable, (2) They are ignored.
The Seven Gray Swans
Chuck Bentley wants to encourage us to think about -- and take action -- with respect to the seven gray swans he sees on the horizon:
1. Universal basic income: While it goes by many names (citizen's income, basic income guarantee, guaranteed annual income), at its root "It is regular income paid to everyone without any conditions. Everyone would automatically receive a regular income paid into their bank accounts" (14). Here, as throughout the book, Bentley examines the rationale for the swan, it's likelihood, what God has to say about it, and precautions to take.
2. Digital Currency/Electronic Economy: Is a cashless future inevitable? Given that 30% of transactions occur with cash, Harvard Business Review thinks the cashless society is unlikely. Still, trends point to the favorable outlook on "cashless" here in the U.S. and around the world. The sacrifice of privacy, the possible use of biometric IDs, and the idea of the government being in control of all citizen money is concerning.
3. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT): Bentley contends "Modern Monetary Theory may be (or should be)_ the top concern on may of our radars' right now" (31). In MMT, the issuing government acts as the bank (think Monopoly), which is not limited to supply. If you can print it, you have it. Deficits don't matter since government prints money to pay its debts and uses taxes to control the supply for inflation. Bentley points to Dr. Stephanie Kelton as the most identifiable champion of MMT. While the government may not be espousing MMT, it is certainly acting in line with MMT, as President Biden has proposed eight trillion in new spending in just 2 1/2 months. Bentley notes that "orthodox economic thinking says that the danger zone for any government is reaching 130% of debt-to-GDP. The U.S. is currently at that place and on pace to exceed it. The author devotes considerable pages in this small book to this which he sees as a significant problem.
4. American Democratic Socialism: So what is it? Democratic Socialism is "a political philosophy supporting political democracy within a socially-owned economy." It is championed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who see this as a favorable alternative to free-market capitalism, the historic bedrock of American monetary operations. Bentley corrects the contention that Jesus was a socialist. He also quotes Milton Friedman, "The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither. The society that puts freedom before equality with end up with a great measure of both." I appreciate his treatment of this subject, examining it biblically as well as politically and economically. It is careful, critical, and helpful.
5. Social Scoring: One need look no further than Twitter, Facebook, Apple, and Google and the cloud they wield relative to "blocking" or "canceling" accounts to understand the essence of social scoring. Bentley points out that China prevented 2.56 million people from purchasing plane tickets in 2019 due to their social credit rating. It can -- and is -- happening in the U.S. For example, New York State Department of Financial Services has approved that life insurance companies can determine premiums based on one's social media posts.
6. Biometric Identification: Fingerprint passwords, facial recognition, retina scans . . . . "Law enforcement agencies, banks, airports, hotels, doctors' offices, travel agencies, and more are collecting records linking everyone to the identity of his/her face, iris, or fingerprint" (67).
7. Fragile Networks: Can someone say, "Ransomware"? Brilliant hackers utilizing malicious software, or malware to prevent one from accessing his/her computer files, systems, or networks is a daily reality. You pay or you don't play. The networks upon which we depend daily (computer, electric, mobile) are not foolproof or bug-proof or completely hack-proof. What does that mean for you and me? Bentley has thoughts about Tesla, Cloud storage, Mobile networks and more. He offers practical steps to protect one's digital assets: (1) strong passwords, (2) utilize two-factor authentication, (3) be wise to phishing attacks, (4) keep physical backups, (5) Keep software updated and security settings turned on.
Chuck Bentley is not an alarmist or extremist. He is a realist. He sees the signs and asks: "What does God say?" How should be we evaluating this particular trend? What steps should we take? While he is not a prognosticator, he does prescribe careful evaluation and appropriate precautions. This is not Chicken Little warning of a falling sky, but a 21st century Solomon telling us to look carefully and take appropriate action.
Bentley concludes with these words from John Stonestreet of Prison Fellowship: "Ideas have consequences. Bad ideas have victims" (92). Gray swans will always be present. Christians don't run from them but face them by examining them carefully, evaluating them biblically, and taking careful steps to ensure you are seeing the danger and taking appropriate precaution, while always resting in the fact that God turns it all to good.
Seven Gray Swans: Trends That Threaten Our Financial Future is a little book (110 pages) with a big impact.